Monday, September 9, 2019

Recession .... Why is it happening?

Why is the recession in the Indian economy being exaggerated?


First read this story ( slightly modified by me in present context) circulated on social media since last few years :

Banwari Lal was a Samosa seller in an Indian town . He used to sell 500 Samosa everyday on a cart in his locality. People liked his Samosa for last 30 years , because he cared for hygiene in preparation and selling, would use good quality oil and other ingredients , provided free green and sweet chutneys with Samosa. He would distribute all unsold samosas to poor people , cow , dogs etc and did not sell unsold stale samosa to people next day .
 
 Banwari earned a good reputation for his business and enough money from samosa selling and he never faced downfall in his sale in last 30 years. He was able to fund his son's costly B Tech and MBA education in a famous private college in Noida out of his earnings.
 
 Recently his son Rohit completed his MBA and came back to home as he could not get appropriate placement for job in his campus . Rohit started taking interest in his father's Samosa business. He had not been involved in his fathers business earlier as he considered that an inferior job.
 
During MBA, Rohit was reading a lot on Recession coming up in global economy and how it was affecting job prospects, increasing unemployment etc and he thought he could not get placement due to recession. So he thought that he should advise his father about risks to his business of samosa selling due to incoming recession.
 
 He told his father that recession may cause fall in sale of samosas so, he should prepare for cost cutting to maintain the same profit .
 
 Banwari was glad that his son knows so much about business and taking interest in his business . He agreed to follow advice of his son .
 
 Next day , Rohit suggested using 20% used cooking oil and 80% fresh oil . People did not notice the change in taste and 500 samosa were sold.
 
 Rohit was glad for his tactics and got motivated by the profit made by this savings. Next day he suggested his father to increase share of used oil to 30% and reduce the quantity of free chutney.
 
 After this , only 400 Samosa were sold and 100 samosa were distributed to poor people and dogs.
 
 Rohit told his father that recession has really set in as predicted by him , so more cost cutting is to be done and they would not give unsold samosas to poor but would fry them again next day and sell them . Quantity of used oil will also be increased to 40% and make only 400 samosas to avoid wastage.
 
 Next day 400 samosas were sold but customers were not feeling good old taste.But Rohit told his father about savings because of his smart planning . Father told him that he may be knowing better , being educated.
 
 Next day Rohit decided to use 50% used oil , do away with sweet chutney and provided only green chutney , made 400 samosa . That day only 300 samosa could be sold as people started disliking the taste.
 
 Rohit told Banwari "Look , I had predicted great recession is arriving and sales would fall . Now this is happening. We will not throw away these 100 stale samosa but fry and sell them tomorrow." Father agreed to his MBA son.
 
 Next day, 200 fresh Samosa made with 50% used oil and 100 stale fried samosa were offered for sale but only 200 could be sold as people sensed the drastic fall in quality.
 
 Rohit said that recession has really set in and now people have no money left to spend so we should make only 100 samosa and recycle 100 unsold samosa and stop giving paper napkins .
 
 After this only 50 samosas could be sold .
 
 Rohit told his father " Now recession has taken people in its grip . People have lost income. So, this business will be in loss and we should stop selling samosas and do something else."
 
 Now his father started shouting on his son :
 
 " I did not know that they teach cheating in the name of MBA course . I lost my money in getting you MBA education. In these 30 years of samosa selling , I never had recession but your greed for profit brought recession in my business and caused its closure. Get out of my business and I will get it back to earlier level on my own . If you want , I can hire you for washing dishes as that is the only thing you can do despite being MBA educated . "
 
 Thereafter , Banwari started following his age old wisdom and fair practices in business. Within a month his sale again reached to 600 samosas.

Recession is nothing but convergence of greed of government to extract more taxes , greed of big businesses to be more profitable by reducing quality and using unfair practices and also of careless arrogant employees giving pathetic service as long as profits are coming. It is the punishment given to businesses and government by consumers by restricting their spending.

Now see in Indian context , what has been happening in India for last many years
 
1. Government is tightening tax noose by demonetization, GST but did not increase income tax exemption, savings limits or increase the convenience of tax payers. The so called Saral, Sugam , Sahaj ITR tax forms are getting lengthier every year even requiring details of interest earned on income tax refund and saving account .

Only cosmetic changes have been done in last 6 budgets and a THANK YOU was offered in budget this year and last year by late Arun Jaitley to middle class salaried tax payers for contributing half of personal income tax.
 

2. Businesses userped the GST benefits and did not pass on the reduction of taxes to people, as promised by government before introducing GST. Surprisingly dining became costlier at 5% GST than when it was 22% VAT .
 
3. Quality of service and products was not cared with respect to new services . Monopoly businesses keep on increasing the prices. Airtel and other players were providing 2G services in the name of 3G and could upgrade only after Jio hit them from behind.
 
4. Inox like cinemas increase the price of tickets on weekened . During Salman Khan movie release, all screens show only his movie and at 50% higher price. They even started showing 30 minutes advertisement in interval for a movie of 2 hours. Now why I should waste my Rs 500 and 4 hours to watch a movie 4 times in a month in multiplex . I would anyway see it on Hotstar or Amazon free in my leisure time and go just a month. Let them face recession.
 
 5. Restaurants increased their price when GST was reduced from 18% to 5% to maintain net bill.Customer still paid the same bills. While government was saying GST will reduce overall tax for public.
 
6. Most retail businesses have opted for composite schemes of GST where they show turnover or sales below 1 crores and pay a fixed tax but they charge all customers 5% to 18% GST on a much higher sales. The tax goes to their pocket , not to the government. And government is not able to control it's corrupt GST officials.

The tax department has given service providers with turnover of up to Rs 50 lakh time till April 30 to opt for the composition scheme and pay 6 per cent GST.
 
The option to pay Goods and Services Tax (GST) at reduced rate of 6 per cent would be effective from the beginning of the financial year or from the date of obtaining new registration during the financial year.
 
Service providers opting for the composition scheme can charge a lower tax rate of 6 per cent from customers, as against the higher rates of 12 and 18 per cent for most services under GST .

Have you ever paid 6% GST while 20 lakh small businesses out of 1.2 crore businesses have opted for this GST composite scheme ? They pocket 18% on turnover of crores and pay just 6% tax showing it less than 50 lakh in a year.
 
7. In goods selling, 50% goods are sold by manufacturers and retailers without recording the sales in GST. I know many retailers who do not provide bills even when you ask for that. Earlier the percentage was tax paid goods was just 10% for normal retailers in state VAT. Please understand that Maximum Retail Price includes GST and other taxes and we need not pay more than MRP .
 
 8. I shop my grocery from Big bazaar . Every time I shop , I get discounts , cash back , ranging up to 25% on MRP while they have to pay GST and corporate tax as organized business. Still they make profit. Coming to our neighborhood retailers , they have been extracting tax from public but never paid any even 5% tax on turnover, thanks to composite scheme and bribe to state VAT officials. Now they find it difficult to pay online GST even at 6% . Then you say retailers are suffering.

9. Private educational institutions are charging in millions for worthless courses, with with no up todate syllabus or scope for employability . For last many years , they depended on IT jobs for placement even for non-IT courses. With recession in IT, recession came to private colleges also. Now people are losing interest in engineering and management education. But the politicians and businessmen have already earned in billions in last 2 decades and invested in property.

10. Real estate builders, banks finance companies cheated people in last 10 years as in Amrapali and JP scandals in Noida and government were sleeping in states and centre. Toothless, ineffective regulator RERA was made to fool public. People stopped buying property and felt happy in rented accomodation. Let the government and builders cry !

11. Recently Motor Vehicle Act was amended to increase fines with minimum fine being Rs 1000 , going up to 5 or 10000.

But who will fine Municipal Corporations for bad , pot holed , flooded roads , overflowing drains, non functioning traffic lights, corrupt traffic police , stray cattles on the road , poor quality of road construction , lack of parking which also lead to many accidents daily ? Only public is responsible for paying income tax and then again 28% GST , license fee, road tax , insurance , after buying automobiles. Why not stop buying automobiles ? Let them face recession. They have already earned for 10 years.
 
12. One retailer yesterday told me Modi has caused recession and now he wants to sell his house but not getting good price. I sympathized with him but he soon told me he had 4 houses bought in last 15 years .

Then I could understand that recession for businessman does not mean survival issue or unemployment but selling 4th property instead of buying 5th property .They are abusing government for introducing demonetization and GST and government is blaming them for tax evasion. While both have been wringing public for money in last 15 years.

People are now simply following Mahatma Gandhi, who told people during British rule to reduce consumption of anything which is priced or taxed more. Interestingly , Government also gives same logic ( reducing the consumption) for increasing the tax on petroleum products, wines, cigarette, automobiles etc . So why government and businesses are worrying and hyping when people are reducing consumption ?

In India , Customer becomes King in Recession , other times Government and businesses behave like King !

Share it if you feel the message should reach the culprits of the recession but posing now as victims of recession

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